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9 October 2023
20231008 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20231010

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13451
13452
13454
13457
13460
13461
13462

Eai/Eai
Eao/Eai
Cso/Cso
Hrx/Hrx
Bxo/Axx
Axx/Cro
Dai/Axx
Bxo/---
Axx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
62 71 55
38 44 35
14 17 15
4 6 5
0 66 50
... 6 5
... 3 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
19 29 15
11 13 10
1 3 1
0 1 1
0 16 10
... 1 1
... 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 1 5
0 1 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13451 N16W60
(801",213")
βδ/βγ Eai/Eai 0240/0180 21/22 -
13452 N10W64
(851",120")
β/β Eao/Eai 0150/0180 12/16 -
13454 S11W41
(620",-260")
β/β Cso/Cso 0030/0030 04/08 -
13457 S11W03
(49",-285")
α/α Hrx/Hrx 0020/0020 01/01 C3.7(22:51)
C2.9(22:45)
C1.7(15:57)
C2.0(14:29)
C1.8(06:56) / -
13458 N15W51
(722",183")
β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0010 02/01 -
13459 N07E17
(-279",17")
α/β Axx/Cro 0010/0020 01/03 -
13460 S10E09
(-148",-268")
βγ/α Dai/Axx 0080/0010 15/02 -
13461 N12E26
(-413",106")
β/- Bxo/--- 0020/---- 02/-- -
13462 N22E48
(-663",293")
α/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 01/-- -
13450 S19W91
(907",-308")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -
13453 N10W91
(945",167")
/ / / / -
13455 N27W35
(492",358")
/ / / / -
13456 S31W89
(822",-492")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.2(00:13) C2.1(03:06) C1.8(04:06) C1.7(04:08) C1.8(04:09) C1.8(04:21) C1.5(04:39) C4.4(05:22) C2.3(07:11) C2.7(07:56) C3.6(08:15) C6.4(08:34) C7.6(11:28) C9.2(18:52) C2.9(21:31)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 9-Oct-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 9-Oct-2023 23:30 UT .