show styles

11 October 2023
20231010 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20231012

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13451
13452
13454
13460
13461
13462
13463
13464

Eki/Eai
Axx/Eao
Cso/Cso
Dai/Dai
Axx/Axx
Cao/Axx
Cao/Hrx
Cro/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
83 81 60
0 3 5
14 17 15
49 66 45
2 3 15
31 22 25
22 22 45
... 13 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
19 42 15
0 1 1
1 3 1
10 16 10
0 1 1
4 3 5
0 3 10
... 2 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
6 7 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13451 N17W89
(918",277")
βγ/βδ Eki/Eai 0270/0240 05/14 -
13452 N09W91
(948",151")
α/β Axx/Eao 0005/0070 01/08 -
13454 S11W71
(892",-215")
β/β Cso/Cso 0030/0040 02/05 -
13460 S10W20
(324",-261")
βγδ/βγ Dai/Dai 0140/0120 18/18 C2.9(01:06)
/ C4.4(20:44)
C2.3(20:19)
13461 N12W03
(49",98")
α/α Axx/Axx 0005/0005 01/01 C6.7(22:03) / -
13462 N18E21
(-328",205")
β/α Cao/Axx 0040/0005 06/01 -
13463 S17E33
(-502",-362")
β/α Cao/Hrx 0040/0010 03/01 -
13464 N04E49
(-725",0")
β/- Cro/--- 0030/---- 04/-- -
13455 N27W63
(764",392")
/ / / / -
13457 S11W31
(487",-269")
/α /Axx /0005 /01 -
13458 N15W79
(911",228")
/ / / / -
13459 N07W12
(199",16")
/ / / / C4.9(14:19)
C2.8(00:49) / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.9(06:58) C1.8(07:23) C1.8(07:32) C7.2(09:29) C1.9(12:20) C1.4(13:20) C2.0(16:16) C3.5(19:41) C3.4(13:44) C2.9(15:43) C2.4(16:43) C2.2(17:46) C1.7(19:49) C1.9(22:44)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 11-Oct-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 11-Oct-2023 23:30 UT .