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9 February 2024
20240208 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240210

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13571
13572
13574
13576
13577
13578
13579
13580
13581

Hax/Hax
Hsx/Bxo
Hsx/Cro
Fkc/Fkc
Hsx/Bxo
Cso/Cro
Cro/Hax
Hax/---
Hsx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
7 8 10
3 5 5
6 5 15
92 92 90
3 5 5
17 17 5
26 13 15
... 8 15
... 5 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
0 3 1
0 3 1
66 79 40
0 3 1
2 3 1
10 2 1
... 3 0
... 3 0
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
15 27 10
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 0
... 0 0

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13571 S19W40
(592",-235")
α/α Hax/Hax 0080/0120 02/05 -
13572 S12W86
(948",-193")
α/β Hsx/Bxo 0020/0010 01/02 C4.7(03:06) / -
13574 N16W34
(524",355")
α/β Hsx/Cro 0020/0020 02/03 -
13576 S16E05
(-81",-160")
βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 0670/0670 44/37 M1.2(17:54) / -
13577 N25W30
(441",496")
α/β Hsx/Bxo 0010/0010 01/04 -
13578 S04E14
(-235",39")
β/β Cso/Cro 0020/0030 03/04 -
13579 S12E25
(-403",-103")
β/α Cro/Hax 0030/0050 03/01 -
13580 N23W62
(791",425")
α/- Hax/--- 0030/---- 02/-- -
13581 S20E56
(-759",-272")
α/- Hsx/--- 0060/---- 01/-- -
13565 N05W91
(967",82")
/β /Bxo /0010 /02 -
13567 N17W75
(898",310")
/ / / / -
13570 S03W62
(858",1")
/ / / / -
13573 N21W91
(907",344")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C6.6(02:13) C3.8(04:06) C2.4(04:42) C3.0(06:18) C9.4(07:26) C3.0(07:52) C5.6(08:06) C6.2(10:15) C1.7(12:22) M3.2(00:36) X3.4(12:53) X3.4(12:53) C3.4(20:06) C2.6(20:50) C1.9(21:44) C2.6(22:13) C2.9(22:30) M4.0(23:16) M4.0(23:16)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 9-Feb-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 9-Feb-2024 20:30 UT .