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15 February 2024
20240214 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240216

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13576
13581
13582
13583
13584
13585
13586

Fkc/Eki
Hsx/Hsx
Eai/Dai
Eho/Eki
Hsx/Cao
Cro/Hax
Hsx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
92 92 90
3 5 5
69 71 55
22 52 40
5 5 5
26 13 15
... 5 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
39 79 40
0 3 1
20 29 15
0 14 10
1 3 1
10 2 1
... 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
8 27 10
0 0 1
1 1 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13576 S16W77
(910",-241")
βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Eki 0660/0600 18/19 -
13581 S21W19
(296",-244")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0050 01/01 C2.5(03:34)
C2.9(02:26)
C3.8(00:44)
C2.9(00:08)
/ C5.4(22:35)
13582 N06W52
(763",171")
β/β Eai/Dai 0170/0240 13/19 -
13583 N09W25
(406",255")
β/βγ Eho/Eki 0260/0270 13/19 -
13584 S13E04
(-66",-105")
α/β Hsx/Cao 0020/0040 03/03 -
13585 N15E35
(-539",342")
β/α Cro/Hax 0020/0050 04/01 -
13586 N29E56
(-705",524")
α/- Hsx/--- 0050/---- 01/-- -
13578 S04W73
(927",-33")
/ / / / -
13579 S09W64
(863",-100")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.1(07:42) C2.1(05:12) C3.2(05:29) C4.1(05:36) C5.1(07:42) C2.5(09:51) C4.6(10:08) C3.4(11:09) C2.7(11:39) C2.7(12:09) C2.7(12:47) C4.3(14:46) C4.7(15:13) C8.1(18:08) M1.9(16:50) M1.9(16:50) C2.2(23:19)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 15-Feb-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 15-Feb-2024 20:30 UT .