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21 June 2024
20240620 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240622

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13712
13713
13716
13718
13719
13720

Ekc/Ekc
Ekc/Ekc
Ekc/Dki
Hrx/Cro
Dao/Cro
Dao/Dao
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
90 93 80
90 93 80
26 93 60
5 6 5
33 36 35
27 36 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
47 82 30
47 82 30
18 82 20
0 1 1
9 7 5
4 7 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
9 20 5
9 20 5
0 20 5
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13712 S24W66
(788",-395")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 1050/1160 15/21 -
13713 S14W53
(733",-246")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0740/0460 29/49 -
13716 N10W60
(806",148")
βγ/βγ Ekc/Dki 0430/0370 22/25 -
13718 N14W14
(222",200")
α/β Hrx/Cro 0020/0020 01/03 C4.2(12:35)
C3.1(12:01)
C3.9(00:17) / -
13719 S13E41
(-605",-235")
β/β Dao/Cro 0070/0020 06/07 -
13720 S05E48
(-700",-102")
β/β Dao/Dao 0060/0030 05/05 -
13714 N14W91
(915",228")
/ / / / -
13715 N17W77
(880",269")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.3(01:56) C5.7(02:23) C4.3(03:36) C5.3(04:56) C5.2(06:27) C3.9(11:02) C3.4(12:46) C3.6(13:59) C3.6(14:00) C3.7(14:14) C4.1(14:42) C4.6(14:53) C4.6(15:54) C4.8(16:30) C5.1(18:23) C3.4(19:14) M5.8(23:00)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 21-Jun-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 21-Jun-2024 23:30 UT .