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23 June 2024
20240622 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240624

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13712
13713
13716
13719
13720
13721
13722

Ekc/Ekc
Ekc/Ekc
Ekc/Ekc
Dso/Dao
Dai/Cao
Hsx/Hsx
Dso/Dso
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
90 93 80
90 93 80
90 93 80
21 30 30
78 66 30
3 5 10
21 30 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
47 82 30
47 82 30
47 82 30
3 7 5
11 16 5
0 3 1
1 7 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
9 20 5
9 20 5
9 20 5
0 1 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 1 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13712 S25W91
(854",-397")
βγ/βγ Ekc/Ekc 0720/0750 09/09 -
13713 S14W79
(899",-234")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0910/0950 24/24 -
13716 N10W86
(927",161")
βγ/βγ Ekc/Ekc 0450/0500 10/14 -
13719 S14E10
(-159",-262")
β/β Dso/Dao 0150/0090 10/05 -
13720 S05E22
(-353",-114")
β/β Dai/Cao 0120/0080 13/08 -
13721 N26E45
(-601",392")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0020 01/01 -
13722 S13E48
(-685",-235")
β/β Dso/Dso 0110/0030 02/02 -
13718 N12W41
(607",171")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.1(00:41) C3.9(01:11) C6.3(02:07) C4.9(02:40) C5.2(03:06) C3.9(04:40) C4.1(05:12) C4.7(05:53) C4.7(15:38) C4.8(16:28) C4.7(16:46) C4.0(18:11) C5.4(21:31) C5.0(23:10) M2.4(06:16) M1.3(11:26) M9.3(12:51) C4.4(17:38) C5.9(17:54) C8.8(19:34)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 23-Jun-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 23-Jun-2024 23:30 UT .