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14 September 2024
20240913 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240915

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13813
13814
13815
13816
13822
13824
13825

Hax/Hax
Cso/Dhi
Hsx/Hsx
Axx/Cso
Dai/Dai
Dsi/Dai
Dac/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
7 8 10
... 17 5
3 5 5
2 3 5
49 66 45
16 58 45
... 47 75
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
... 3 1
0 3 1
0 1 1
10 16 10
6 12 10
... 24 35
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
... 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
... 2 15

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13813 S24W91
(870",-382")
α/α Hax/Hax 0030/0020 01/03 -
13814 N16W57
(770",198")
βγ/βγδ Cso/Dhi 0110/0280 06/13 -
13815 S25W83
(858",-413")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0140 01/01 -
13816 S08W90
(944",-131")
α/β Axx/Cso 0010/0070 01/03 - / C6.3(23:14)
13822 N14W45
(656",147")
β/β Dai/Dai 0140/0130 13/13 -
13824 S05W13
(214",-199")
βγ/βγ Dsi/Dai 0110/0170 13/20 -
13825 S18E49
(-686",-367")
βγ/- Dac/--- 0240/---- 06/-- -
13817 S14W61
(810",-285")
/ / / / -
13819 S27W78
(831",-451")
/ / / / -
13820 S21W90
(890",-338")
/α /Axx /0010 /04 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.5(00:48) C5.5(14:17) C5.4(14:41) M1.0(03:10) M3.0(07:26) X4.5(15:13) C9.6(12:21) C9.4(18:51) C4.8(21:23) M1.3(02:33) M2.1(04:37) M2.9(08:14) M1.4(17:49) M1.1(20:41)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 14-Sep-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 14-Sep-2024 23:30 UT .