show styles

 14 July 1999
⇐19990713 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 19990715⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
08614 N17W91
(903",276") 		α/β Hax/Eao 0030/0160 01/04 -
08615 S29W91
(825",-455") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0120/0170 03/05 -
08620 N22W88
(875",350") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0040/0040 05/03 -
08624 N22W83
(869",345") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0030/0020 04/05 -
08625 S19W27
(406",-367") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0030/0020 06/03 -
08626 S20W91
(887",-320") 		β/β Bxo/Dso 0020/0090 03/07 -
08627 S14W08
(128",-297") 		β/β Fac/Fao 0250/0210 18/19 -
08628 N17W23
(354",214") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0220/0210 22/21 -
08631 N11E36
(-547",124") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0160/0140 01/01 -
08632 S20W91
(887",-320") 		β/β Dro/Dao 0030/0050 03/06 -
08633 N41W05
(62",566") 		α/β Axx/Bxo 0000/0010 01/04 -
08634 S18E45
(-637",-339") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.2(04:02) C2.9(05:22)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 14-Jul-1999 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 14-Jul-1999 23:30 .