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 31 July 1999
⇐19990730 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 19990801⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
08636 N21W91
(881",338") 		β/β Cao/Eki 0080/0360 04/08 -
08640 N16W69
(849",226") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0100/0110 04/07 -
08644 S25W36
(504",-468") 		β/β Cro/Cso 0020/0030 02/03 -
08645 S25W16
(236",-481") 		βγ/βγ Fao/Fki 0620/0590 37/34 C3.1(17:49)
C2.4(09:24)
C2.3(00:21) / -
08647 S17W17
(265",-362") 		β/β Cso/Eso 0040/0050 11/17 -
08648 N23E03
(-45",281") 		β/β Bxo/Cso 0010/0010 04/03 -
08649 S15W44
(635",-309") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0170/0100 25/21 - / M1.7(15:09)
C3.6(12:18)
08650 N16E22
(-341",175") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0050/0050 01/04 -
08651 N24E23
(-338",303") 		βγ/β Dai/Dai 0510/0210 26/25 C1.7(18:23)
C2.4(16:07)
C4.1(13:56)
C2.3(03:19)
/ C5.1(23:19)
C5.0(21:52)
C6.1(16:02)
C2.8(14:14)
C3.8(12:51)
C3.0(12:06)
C5.4(08:47)
C3.9(07:16)
C3.6(05:52)
C3.9(01:56)
08653 N29W71
(782",429") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0020/0010 04/04 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.4(02:33) C1.6(03:01) C4.6(10:24) C4.1(23:53) C6.4(01:04) C3.5(17:20) C5.4(18:47) C5.3(19:14) C3.7(20:18)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 31-Jul-1999 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 31-Jul-1999 23:30 .