show styles

 27 June 2000
⇐20000626 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000628⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09046 N20W88
(887",321") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0090/0110 01/08 C3.2(21:01)
C1.7(16:25)
C1.9(14:29)
/ C1.7(15:08)
09049 S35W77
(754",-549") 		β/β Cso/Cao 0050/0080 02/10 -
09054 N12W32
(491",161") 		βγ/β Dao/Dao 0260/0130 17/17 - / C1.7(23:39)
C1.6(11:51)
C3.2(06:31)
C2.4(00:45)
09055 N19W08
(124",268") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0070 02/02 -
09056 S14W12
(191",-269") 		α/α Hhx/Hsx 0260/0230 01/01 -
09057 N13E06
(-96",171") 		α/α Hhx/Hsx 0250/0200 01/01 -
09058 S14W69
(856",-243") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0220/0140 16/16 - / C2.4(01:20)
09059 N16W23
(356",223") 		β/β Bxo/Cro 0020/0020 04/07 - / C1.7(15:08)
09060 S34E23
(-307",-561") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 04/02 -
09061 S15E31
(-471",-280") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0050 01/01 -
09062 S18E47
(-658",-320") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0140/0080 08/02 C9.3(12:40) / -
09063 N24E28
(-406",350") 		β/- Cro/- 0030/- 03/- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(00:57) C1.9(03:25) C1.8(06:50) C1.3(10:23) C4.1(01:50) C1.8(04:27) C1.8(10:35) C5.6(18:38) C2.0(23:13)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 27-Jun-2000 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 27-Jun-2000 23:30 .