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 26 March 2001
⇐20010325 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010327⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09387 N08W37
(569",36") 		βγδ/β Cso/Dso 0110/0150 07/11 -
09389 S12W01
(16",-315") 		βγδ/β Fai/Fao 0100/0150 25/13 -
09390 N14W08
(129",113") 		βγδ/β Esi/Fai 0080/0100 25/19 -
09392 N18W82
(897",276") 		βγδ/β Cso/Dso 0040/0040 04/06 -
09393 N20E25
(-379",221") 		βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 1040/0820 21/12 -
09394 N09E21
(-338",37") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Hsx 0000/0010 01/01 -
09395 S12E35
(-536",-293") 		βγδ/αγδ Cao/Hsx 0050/0150 03/01 -
09396 S06W31
(489",-201") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Bxo 0040/0020 15/05 -
09397 S12E47
(-683",-277") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0190/0290 09/03 -
09398 N20W24
(365",220") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Bxo 0030/0010 07/06 -
09399 S30W23
(323",-570") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Bxo 0030/0010 07/05 -
09400 N11E06
(-98",63") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Hrx 0000/0010 01/02 -
09401 N22E41
(-581",270") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0150/0150 08/08 -
09402 N17E02
(-31",162") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 03/03 -
09403 S13E48
(-691",-291") 		αγδ/- Hrx/--- 0020/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 26-Mar-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 26-Mar-2001 23:30 .