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 31 March 2001
⇐20010330 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010401⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09387 N08W91
(942",133") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0060/0110 01/01 -
09389 S10W77
(914",-190") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Dso 0050/0050 08/12 -
09390 N13W79
(911",190") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Cso 0050/0050 01/03 -
09393 N17W44
(634",194") 		βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fki 2240/2440 63/51 -
09395 S13W31
(479",-314") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hax 0050/0050 02/01 -
09396 S06W91
(946",-96") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0140/0240 05/07 -
09397 S09W20
(323",-260") 		βγδ/βγδ Eao/Eao 0180/0220 23/13 -
09401 N21W25
(377",237") 		βγδ/βγδ Eki/Dai 0230/0210 37/18 -
09402 N20W71
(847",286") 		βγδ/αγδ Cro/Hrx 0020/0010 03/01 -
09403 S13W08
(129",-329") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 02/03 -
09404 S05E09
(-149",-201") 		βγδ/αγδ Cao/Hax 0080/0070 07/01 -
09406 N26E27
(-390",319") 		αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hsx 0170/0160 01/01 -
09407 N11E27
(-426",75") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0100/0110 05/02 -
09408 S09W03
(49",-267") 		βγδ/βγδ Eki/Eai 0200/0200 28/15 -
09410 S36E25
(-326",-645") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0010/0010 02/02 -
09411 N07E35
(-544",17") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0020/0020 02/02 -
09412 S14E65
(-838",-278") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0030/0030 02/02 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 31-Mar-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 31-Mar-2001 23:30 .