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 27 May 2001
⇐20010526 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010528⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09461 N22W85
(880",344") 		α/αγ Hsx/Hax 0030/0030 01/01 -
09462 N21W54
(721",273") 		α/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0070/0060 01/01 -
09463 N08W52
(745",58") 		βγ/βγ Eko/Eki 0530/0480 20/26 -
09465 S10W32
(498",-265") 		βγ/βγ Cro/Bxo 0020/0010 05/06 -
09466 S04W39
(600",-159") 		βγ/βγ Bxo/Cso 0050/0030 04/07 -
09467 S07W27
(430",-222") 		αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0070/0060 01/02 -
09468 N06W16
(262",-16") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0150/0090 16/22 -
09472 N12E07
(-114",80") 		αγ/αγ Hax/Hsx 0020/0010 02/01 -
09473 N12W02
(32",79") 		βγ/βγ Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 03/03 -
09474 N18E39
(-572",203") 		βγ/βγ Bxo/Bxo 0030/0030 03/03 -
09475 N17E57
(-765",214") 		αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0050/0050 01/01 -
09476 S22W82
(874",-369") 		αγ/- Hrx/--- 0020/---- 01/-- -
09477 S16E06
(-96",-376") 		βγ/- Dso/--- 0040/---- 06/-- -
09478 N14E01
(-16",112") 		βγ/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 03/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 27-May-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 27-May-2001 23:30 .