show styles

 3 October 2001
⇐20011002 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011004⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09632 S21W91
(888",-336") 		βγδ/βγδ Eki/Ekc 0220/0620 06/20 -
09633 N21W70
(836",300") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0080/0070 03/01 -
09634 N12W65
(846",147") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Cao 0050/0070 04/10 -
09636 N14W55
(759",162") 		βγδ/βγδ Eac/Eac 0250/0310 18/34 -
09637 S14W49
(699",-305") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Eso 0090/0120 09/15 -
09639 N03W65
(863",-1") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Cso 0040/0060 02/04 -
09640 N10W14
(227",49") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cao 0020/0040 10/03 -
09641 S14W06
(97",-345") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Eao 0250/0220 11/09 -
09642 N05E14
(-230",-33") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hax 0040/0060 01/02 -
09643 S27W51
(661",-497") 		αγδ/βγδ Axx/Bxo 0000/0030 01/03 -
09644 N19W31
(465",211") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0030/0030 07/04 -
09645 S18W26
(398",-396") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0030/0060 10/12 -
09646 N12E14
(-226",82") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Cao 0010/0030 02/03 -
09647 S16E17
(-268",-372") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0000/0000 01/01 -
09648 S04E64
(-855",-118") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0050/0050 01/01 -
09649 S06E56
(-787",-165") 		αγδ/- Hsx/--- 0030/---- 01/-- -
09650 S12E58
(-791",-259") 		βγδ/- Cao/--- 0070/---- 03/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 03-Oct-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 03-Oct-2001 23:30 .