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 5 October 2001
⇐20011004 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011006⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09633 N23W91
(876",371") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0060/0070 01/01 -
09634 N12W90
(931",196") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cao 0110/0060 04/06 -
09636 N13W84
(923",200") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dai 0150/0200 07/12 -
09637 S14W76
(897",-257") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Dao 0060/0080 05/04 -
09639 N07W91
(945",117") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Hsx 0010/0030 01/01 -
09640 N11W41
(615",91") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0020/0010 05/06 -
09641 S13W33
(507",-311") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cao 0140/0180 07/10 -
09642 N05W12
(198",-34") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hax 0030/0020 01/01 -
09644 N20W56
(743",260") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Hsx 0010/0010 01/01 -
09645 S17W55
(747",-342") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0150/0100 09/08 -
09646 N13W16
(256",100") 		βγδ/αγδ Bxo/Hrx 0010/0010 03/01 -
09647 S18W22
(340",-399") 		βγδ/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 02/-- -
09648 S06E35
(-545",-197") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0110/0080 01/01 -
09649 S08E42
(-633",-220") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0040/0030 01/01 -
09650 S15E40
(-593",-334") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cao 0040/0070 07/03 -
09651 S22W26
(388",-455") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0030/0030 05/05 -
09652 N22W00
(0",243") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 02/02 -
09653 S23E62
(-775",-421") 		αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hax 0060/0060 01/01 -
09654 N07W08
(132",-2") 		αγδ/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 05-Oct-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 05-Oct-2001 23:30 .