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 29 October 2001
⇐20011028 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011030⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09670 S18W91
(905",-289") 		βγδ/β Cao/Fao 0100/0190 05/06 -
09672 S18W81
(895",-309") 		βγδ/βγδ Dki/Dki 0390/0450 10/11 -
09673 N05W77
(925",55") 		αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hsx 0080/0090 01/01 -
09676 N15W49
(696",168") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
09677 N24W50
(668",314") 		αγδ/βγδ Axx/Bxo 0000/0010 03/04 -
09678 N07W35
(544",17") 		βγδ/βγδ Eki/Ekc 0620/0630 34/43 -
09679 S09W21
(338",-259") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0040/0030 08/10 -
09680 N22W21
(317",250") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 02/02 -
09681 S24W51
(677",-454") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Dao 0030/0040 01/05 -
09682 N12E18
(-289",85") 		βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Eki 0830/0990 32/28 -
09683 N28W13
(189",341") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Cso 0010/0010 02/05 -
09684 N06E55
(-777",30") 		βγδ/αγδ Dki/Hhx 0510/0140 10/01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Oct-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 29-Oct-2001 23:30 .