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2 May 2002
20020501 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20020503

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
09914 N05W91
α/β Hsx/Cso 0050/0110 01/03 -
09915 N12W91
β/β Cao/Dso 0150/0150 04/06 -
09919 N13W54
α/β Hsx/Cso 0060/0070 01/06 -
09926 N14W43
βγ/β Dao/Cao 0070/0060 11/05 -
09927 S30E29
βγ/β Cso/Cso 0080/0070 06/04 -
09928 N17E34
βγ/β Dao/Cso 0120/0070 05/04 -
09929 N21W25
αγ/β Axx/Bxo 0000/0010 01/03 -
09930 N12W31
βγ/βγ Cso/Cso 0030/0030 10/10 -
09931 N15E05
βγ/βγ Cao/Cao 0030/0030 08/08 -
09932 S28E42
βγ/βγ Cao/Cao 0040/0040 03/03 -
09933 N16E50
αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0090/0090 01/01 -
09934 S18E59
βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0240/0240 06/06 -
09935 S18E19
βγ/- Cao/--- 0030/---- 06/-- -
09936 S15E28
βγ/- Dso/--- 0050/---- 06/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 02-May-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 02-May-2002 23:30 .