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 4 May 2002
⇐20020503 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20020505⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09919 N13W82
(919",196") 		αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0050/0060 01/01 -
09926 N15W70
(865",205") 		βγ/βγ Dro/Dao 0040/0080 04/09 -
09927 S28W00
(0",-551") 		αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0030/0050 02/04 -
09928 N18E08
(-126",179") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0130/0080 17/06 -
09929 N22W40
(569",269") 		βγ/αγ Dso/Axx 0080/0000 12/01 -
09930 N12W58
(792",134") 		βγ/βγ Cro/Dro 0020/0050 03/09 -
09931 N16W23
(359",154") 		βγ/βγ Dso/Dao 0120/0060 13/09 -
09932 S28E17
(-246",-546") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0160/0110 10/04 -
09933 N18E23
(-355",187") 		βγ/αγ Cso/Hsx 0100/0090 04/01 -
09934 S17E34
(-511",-372") 		βγδ/βγ Eki/Eao 0580/0420 21/11 -
09935 S19E02
(-31",-422") 		βγδ/βγ Dso/Cao 0050/0030 06/06 -
09936 S16E13
(-206",-374") 		βγδ/βγ Cro/Dso 0030/0050 05/06 -
09937 S09E54
(-762",-218") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0070/0070 03/03 -
09938 S04E58
(-807",-129") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
09939 N16E53
(-733",191") 		αγδ/- Hax/--- 0050/---- 01/-- -
09940 N14E58
(-785",167") 		αγδ/- Hax/--- 0070/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 04-May-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 04-May-2002 23:30 .