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 8 May 2002
⇐20020507 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20020509⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09927 S23W48
(653",-444") 		βγδ/- Dso/--- 0030/---- 02/-- -
09928 N19W46
(649",229") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0030/0050 04/08 -
09929 N23W91
(876",371") 		αγδ/βγδ Hax/Dao 0090/0170 01/05 -
09931 N15W80
(906",224") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Cso 0030/0050 01/03 -
09932 S27W34
(476",-519") 		βγδ/βγδ Eso/Eso 0050/0070 05/10 -
09933 N18W29
(440",192") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0070/0100 01/01 -
09934 S17W20
(312",-385") 		βγδ/βγδ Eki/Eki 0510/0500 21/23 -
09935 S17W55
(747",-342") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0010/0000 01/01 -
09936 S16W42
(614",-347") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Cso 0020/0020 01/05 -
09937 S09E01
(-16",-267") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dko 0120/0180 08/09 -
09938 S05E04
(-66",-202") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hax 0020/0030 01/01 -
09939 N16E13
(-206",148") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0020/0040 01/01 -
09940 N15E14
(-223",132") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hax 0020/0040 01/01 -
09941 S22W32
(469",-449") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Dso 0020/0040 03/06 -
09942 N21W04
(62",227") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0010/0010 02/01 -
09943 S10E23
(-367",-274") 		βγδ/αγδ Cso/Hsx 0030/0020 03/01 -
09944 N08E21
(-339",20") 		βγδ/βγδ Cro/Cro 0040/0040 03/03 -
09945 S05E52
(-749",-156") 		αγδ/αγδ Hkx/Hkx 0240/0240 01/01 -
09946 S08E51
(-734",-206") 		βγδ/- Dao/--- 0070/---- 03/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 08-May-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 08-May-2002 23:30 .