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29 October 2002
20021028 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20021030

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
10162 N25W73
βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 0840/0680 39/39 C5.4(23:00)
/ M1.7(12:00)
10165 N21W48
α/β Hax/Cao 0130/0150 02/04 -
10167 N17W04
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0020 02/01 -
10169 S20E07
β/β Dao/Dso 0050/0050 09/02 -
10170 S12E10
β/β Cao/Cso 0030/0030 03/02 C1.1(01:33) / -
10171 N10E25
α/α Hax/Hsx 0070/0060 03/01 -
10172 S17E30
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0030 02/01 -
10173 S17W83
β/- Cso/--- 0050/---- 03/-- C1.6(14:45)
C2.9(05:49) / -
10164 N11W65
/ / / / -
10166 S06W71
/ / / / - / C1.1(23:21)

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.6(04:18) C8.7(15:19) C3.3(23:23)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Oct-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 29-Oct-2002 23:30 .