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 22 July 2003
⇐20030721 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20030723⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
10405 S12W86
(926",-203") 		α/α Axx/Hsx 0010/0020 01/01 -
10409 N15W51
(714",172") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0060/0160 18/15 C1.8(16:50)
/ C2.0(22:30)
10410 S12W54
(753",-264") 		βγ/βγδ Ekc/Eac 0680/0620 36/44 - / C1.3(14:11)
C1.4(08:34)
C1.7(07:36)
C1.7(07:24)
C2.3(03:39)
C1.4(03:19)
C3.3(02:19)
C1.3(01:50)
C3.2(00:28)
10411 N15W29
(446",144") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0030 01/01 -
10412 N15W61
(803",189") 		βγ/βγ Dai/Dsi 0180/0200 12/14 C3.5(01:57)
/ C1.5(01:18)
10413 N20W33
(487",230") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
10414 S03E05
(-83",-167") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0110/0130 02/01 -
10415 N12W12
(193",83") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0080/0110 10/09 -
10416 S07W72
(897",-151") 		β/β Cao/Dso 0060/0030 04/04 -
10417 S21W63
(791",-388") 		βγ/β Dso/Dso 0150/0110 19/21 C1.5(21:19)
C1.7(15:15)
C1.3(14:15)
C3.6(08:16)
C5.2(07:06)
C1.5(06:05)
C3.5(03:45)
C2.8(03:35)
/ C2.8(23:56)
C1.1(20:00)
C1.3(17:02)
C1.2(01:09)
10418 S06W37
(570",-192") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0040/0020 05/03 -
10408 N13W91
(925",213") 		/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.5(21:09)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 22-Jul-2003 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 22-Jul-2003 23:30 .