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 18 November 2012
⇐20121117 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20121119⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
11610 S23W90
(872",-367") 		β/βγδ Cso/Cso 0060/0160 02/10 -
11611 N12W71
(878",159") 		α/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0120/0130 01/01 -
11612 N09W57
(787",85") 		β/αγδ Cro/Hrx 0030/0030 03/01 -
11613 S24W33
(473",-472") 		βγ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0100/0100 10/04 C1.0(08:11)
/ C2.8(18:02)
C1.2(04:02)
11614 N15W21
(329",140") 		βγ/βγδ Dai/Dai 0160/0240 31/24 -
11615 N08W35
(540",38") 		βγ/βγδ Bxo/Cro 0010/0020 04/06 C5.7(03:55)
/ C1.7(02:59)
11616 N19E09
(-140",200") 		βγ/βγδ Cso/Dso 0060/0110 12/13 -
11618 N09E36
(-552",55") 		βγ/βγ Eai/Eai 0020/0020 01/01 C1.0(21:16)
C1.3(15:28)
/ C1.3(15:58)
11619 N10E02
(-32",50") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0090/0090 09/09 C4.3(13:03) / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(19:21)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on .