Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspotgroup McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 19691976 & 19881996 (MCSTAT) and 19882008 (MCEVOL).
MCSTAT – Uses pointintime McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:
[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41 MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:
[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016) Further Reading: Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical ResearchSpace Physics, 106(A12) 29951
Notes:
'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in realtime and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in realtime after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3day Space Weather Predictions page.
Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.
