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21 July 2022
20220720 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20220722

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13056
13057
13058
13059
13060
13062
13063
13064

Cro/Dri
Hsx/Eso
Bxo/Dro
Cso/Cso
Hrx/Hsx
Hsx/Hsx
Bxo/---
Bxo/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
... 13 30
11 5 10
6 6 5
14 17 10
5 6 5
3 5 5
... 6 10
... 6 30
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
... 2 5
0 3 1
0 1 1
1 3 1
0 1 1
0 3 1
... 1 1
... 1 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
... 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13056 S14W87
(914",-231")
β/β Cro/Dri 0040/0080 07/11 C2.6(12:49)
C3.1(11:16)
C1.6(08:18)
C1.3(06:08)
C1.7(04:52)
/ C1.8(23:05)
13057 N17W62
(798",238")
α/β Hsx/Eso 0200/0190 08/11 -
13058 N13W29
(447",142")
β/β Bxo/Dro 0030/0070 05/07 -
13059 S08W14
(227",-209")
β/β Cso/Cso 0130/0130 08/06 -
13060 N13W20
(315",137")
α/α Hrx/Hsx 0030/0030 06/06 C5.6(01:02) / -
13062 S26E46
(-611",-464")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0060 01/01 -
13063 N10W05
(81",83")
β/- Bxo/--- 0030/---- 08/-- -
13064 N08E15
(-242",53")
β/- Bxo/--- 0030/---- 06/-- -
13061 N24W91
(862",383")
/α /Axx /0010 /02 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.2(00:25) C4.2(00:38) C1.5(15:12) C1.3(19:49) C1.6(22:13) C2.0(12:10) C2.0(14:58) C1.1(16:53) C2.9(19:17) C3.9(19:45) C1.3(22:33) C4.2(23:01)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 21-Jul-2022 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 21-Jul-2022 23:30 UT .