show styles

26 January 2023
20230125 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230127

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13190
13192
13196
13197
13198
13199
13200
13201

Dkc/Dkc
Cao/Cao
Cso/Cso
Cro/Dao
Hsx/Cso
Cao/Cao
Cao/Cao
Hsx/Hsx
Cao/---
Bxo/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
89 80 50
17 22 20
14 17 10
3 13 5
6 5 5
17 22 20
17 22 10
3 5 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
46 49 15
2 3 5
1 3 1
0 2 1
0 3 1
2 3 1
2 3 1
0 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
7 9 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13190 S14W91
(944",-236")
βγ/βγδ Dkc/Dkc 0680/0880 03/06 C3.2(14:32)
C4.6(12:36)
/ M4.7(09:37)
C7.2(08:21)
13192 N15W91
(940",249")
β/β Cao/Cao 0070/0130 03/04 -
13196 N19W53
(737",370")
β/β Cso/Cso 0060/0010 08/02 -
13197 N20W44
(637",396")
β/β Cro/Dao 0030/0060 03/05 -
13198 N25W36
(520",480")
α/β Hsx/Cso 0070/0060 01/01 - / C6.5(05:59)
13199 N18W20
(318",385")
β/β Cao/Cao 0040/0060 06/12 C2.6(06:45)
C2.4(05:32)
/ M2.0(22:23)
C4.9(21:52)
M1.3(16:42)
C6.1(14:44)
13200 N21E10
(-158",436")
β/β Cao/Cao 0050/0040 07/02 -
13201 N24E32
(-473",469")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0020 01/01 -
13202 N13W59
(815",266")
β/- Cao/--- 0010/---- 05/-- -
13203 N16E20
(-321",354")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 03/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.8(02:44) C3.0(04:19) C6.8(07:24) C4.7(14:51) C3.5(18:06) C2.8(19:08) M2.9(12:53) C9.6(04:43) C5.8(07:59)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 26-Jan-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 26-Jan-2023 20:30 UT .