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29 September 2023
20230928 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230930

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13435
13440
13445
13447
13448
13449
13450

Cso/Dso
Hrx/Hsx
Dao/Dai
Csi/Dao
Hsx/Hsx
Dao/Cao
Dai/Cro
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
14 17 10
5 6 5
35 36 35
0 44 20
3 5 5
40 36 35
54 66 65
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
4 3 1
0 1 1
4 7 5
0 8 1
0 3 1
7 7 10
20 16 25
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13435 N10W91
(942",167")
β/β Cso/Dso 0090/0190 03/07 -
13440 N18W72
(867",260")
α/α Hrx/Hsx 0020/0030 01/01 -
13445 S14W63
(829",-280")
β/β Dao/Dai 0140/0200 09/22 -
13447 S22W45
(629",-431")
β/β Csi/Dao 0120/0180 07/14 -
13448 N13E19
(-305",110")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0110/0130 02/01 -
13449 N15E02
(-32",137")
β/βγ Dao/Cao 0090/0070 09/10 C3.9(22:17) / -
13450 S19E44
(-630",-387")
β/β Dai/Cro 0070/0030 08/02 -
13438 N12W91
(936",199")
/ / / / -
13439 S23W91
(880",-369")
/ / / / -
13442 S09W69
(884",-189")
/α /Axx /0005 /01 -
13444 N22W69
(830",319")
/ / / / -
13446 N23W36
(519",288")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.7(03:08) C1.8(05:06) C2.3(05:41) C1.5(11:37) C1.9(13:01) C2.3(17:14) C7.6(18:11) C5.0(19:58) C1.8(21:49) C1.9(10:46) C2.4(12:22) C3.1(13:56) C2.6(17:07) C1.4(18:09) C1.5(19:09) C1.6(20:46) C1.3(21:50) C1.8(23:52) M1.3(08:58)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Sep-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 29-Sep-2023 23:30 UT .