show styles

5 October 2023
20231004 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20231006

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13448
13450
13451
13452
13453
13454
13456
13457

Hsx/Hsx
Eso/Eai
Dso/Dso
Eac/Eai
Cao/Dao
Cro/Bxo
Axx/Bxo
Hrx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 5
53 32 35
21 30 45
85 81 55
17 22 10
13 13 10
3 3 5
... 6 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
0 11 5
1 7 10
10 30 10
3 3 1
1 2 1
0 1 1
... 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
26 14 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13448 N10W60
(819",112")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0090 01/02 -
13450 S23W37
(532",-453")
β/βγ Eso/Eai 0110/0140 13/19 - / C1.3(23:56)
13451 N12W06
(98",93")
β/β Dso/Dso 0070/0050 08/08 -
13452 N07W07
(116",9")
β/β Eac/Eai 0240/0150 36/16 C2.1(22:00)
C1.3(12:21) / -
13453 N07W43
(651",37")
β/β Cao/Dao 0050/0050 05/05 -
13454 S16E12
(-192",-366")
β/β Cro/Bxo 0030/0020 06/03 -
13456 S31W32
(436",-571")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0010/0010 01/02 -
13457 S11E48
(-701",-253")
α/- Hrx/--- 0030/---- 01/-- -
13449 N15W81
(915",230")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -
13455 N21E20
(-307",247")
/α /Axx /0010 /04 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.8(06:51) C1.4(13:20) C1.6(15:23) C3.5(16:22) C1.6(17:47) C4.7(19:03) C4.0(21:06) C1.8(01:14) C1.5(03:43) C2.5(07:49) C2.0(08:40) C1.3(09:03) C1.8(09:32) C3.0(09:44) C1.5(19:20) C1.7(23:27)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 5-Oct-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 5-Oct-2023 23:30 UT .