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11 November 2023
20231110 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20231112

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13477
13480
13481
13483
13484
13485

Dao/Dac
Bxo/Cro
Axx/Bxo
Dai/Eai
Bxo/
Bxo/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
25 36 30
8 6 20
3 3 5
48 66 45
... 6 20
... 6 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 7 5
1 1 1
0 1 1
10 16 10
... 1 1
... 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13477 S15W65
(849",-273")
β/β Dao/Dac 0240/0230 08/07 C7.9(18:19)
M1.2(17:01)
C1.8(16:36)
C1.6(16:04)
C2.1(13:40)
C1.5(13:10)
C3.8(08:26)
C2.4(03:27)
C2.0(02:52)
/ C2.8(20:29)
13480 S09W38
(591",-195")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0020/0030 03/02 -
13481 N25W49
(664",376")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0010/0030 01/03 -
13483 N10W50
(732",133")
β/β Dai/Eai 0180/0120 12/16 -
13484 S14W46
(678",-272")
β/ Bxo/ 0030/ 06/ -
13485 S19W37
(553",-357")
β/- Bxo/--- 0020/---- 03/-- -
13478 N12W65
(860",178")
/ / / / -
13482 N04W11
(185",13")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 C2.8(12:24)
C6.6(09:10)
C2.5(07:29)
C1.8(06:22)
C3.6(05:59)
C7.2(03:51)
C2.2(00:20)
/ C2.7(21:03)

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.3(18:56)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 11-Nov-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 11-Nov-2023 20:30 UT .