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19 December 2023
20231218 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20231220

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13519
13521
13523
13524
13525
13526
13527
13528
13529

Dsi/Dsi
Dao/Hax
Bxo/Hrx
Axx/Hrx
Axx/Cro
Cao/Cao
Cao/---
Dsi/---
Dsi/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
50 58 40
56 36 25
8 6 10
1 3 5
2 3 5
17 22 15
... 22 15
... 58 45
... 58 40
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
7 12 5
9 7 5
0 1 1
0 1 1
0 1 1
2 3 1
... 3 1
... 12 5
... 12 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13519 S11W40
(617",-167")
β/β Dsi/Dsi 0130/0130 11/18 -
13521 N11E24
(-390",208")
β/α Dao/Hax 0050/0030 08/03 -
13523 N22E26
(-397",387")
β/α Bxo/Hrx 0010/0010 02/01 -
13524 N27E24
(-354",464")
α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0020 01/02 -
13525 S09E05
(-84",-128")
α/β Axx/Cro 0010/0020 01/03 -
13526 N15E45
(-667",269")
β/β Cao/Cao 0030/0020 02/03 -
13527 S03W68
(904",-41")
β/- Cao/--- 0040/---- 05/-- -
13528 N09W00
(0",177")
βδ/- Dsi/--- 0050/---- 09/-- -
13529 S20E44
(-638",-317")
β/- Dsi/--- 0060/---- 08/-- -
13515 S14W71
(895",-228")
/ / / / -
13516 S18W66
(848",-292")
/α /Axx /0010 /02 -
13518 N13W19
(310",242")
/ / / / - / C2.2(16:44)
C4.4(15:06)
13522 S03W15
(253",-27")
/ / / / - / C4.0(20:27)
C2.7(16:50)
C2.4(12:01)

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.6(02:42) C7.4(02:56) C3.7(06:20) C2.5(07:32) C2.4(10:42) C3.1(11:54) C2.3(13:08) C7.1(15:13) C2.7(17:35) C2.5(17:45) C2.5(11:10) C2.3(12:31) C2.6(13:04) C6.5(14:13) C4.6(19:15)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 19-Dec-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 19-Dec-2023 20:30 UT .