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20 May 2024
20240519 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240521

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13674
13676
13679
13683
13684
13685
13686

Axx/Hsx
Csi/Csi
Axx/Hax
Esi/Eho
Dai/Dsi
Bxo/
Ehi/Ehi
Hax/Hax
Bxo/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
... 44 15
7 3 0
... 84 55
56 66 50
... 6 20
92 80 75
7 8 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
... 8 1
0 1 0
... 21 10
12 16 10
... 1 5
13 43 30
0 3 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
... 1 1
0 0 0
... 2 1
0 2 1
... 0 1
0 6 5
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13672 N19W87
(894",309")
α/α Axx/Hsx 0010/0020 01/21 -
13674 S13W54
(748",-195")
β/β Csi/Csi 0120/0180 07/13 -
13676 S21W91
(884",-339")
α/α Axx/Hax 0010/0080 01/01 -
13679 S08W32
(499",-105")
βγ/βγ Esi/Eho 0170/0260 11/13 -
13683 S24W72
(824",-376")
β/β Dai/Dsi 0110/0120 17/14 -
13684 S06W04
(66",-67")
β/ Bxo/ 0010/ 03/ C4.6(18:24)
C2.2(12:43)
C2.9(10:29)
/ M1.6(21:53)
13685 S13E15
(-240",-183")
βγ/βγ Ehi/Ehi 0420/0380 17/10 -
13686 S06E25
(-399",-70")
α/α Hax/Hax 0130/0120 02/02 -
13687 N15W13
(206",276")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 05/-- -
13673 S08W67
(865",-119")
/α /Hrx /0010 /01 -
13678 N09W48
(697",170")
/ / / / -
13680 N18W34
(505",319")
/ / / / - / C2.5(08:50)
13682 N15W26
(402",274")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.3(05:32) C6.7(05:42) C2.5(05:59) C2.4(09:52) C2.4(12:31) C2.3(13:12) C2.0(13:54) C1.8(14:07) C2.4(15:01) C2.9(16:07) C3.4(19:22) C2.8(20:23) C3.0(21:36) M1.9(13:37) M2.5(17:47)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 20-May-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 20-May-2024 23:30 UT .