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25 May 2024
20240524 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240526

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13679
13684
13685
13686
13689
13690

Ekc/Ekc
Cso/Cso
Ehc/Ehc
Cao/Cao
Cro/Cro
Hsx/Hsx
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
90 93 70
14 17 10
0 99 40
17 22 20
7 13 10
3 5 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
47 82 40
1 3 1
0 74 10
2 3 5
1 2 1
0 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
9 20 10
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13679 S08W91
(937",-132")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0360/0480 08/10 -
13684 S07W79
(923",-111")
βγ/βγ Cso/Cso 0080/0100 06/08 -
13685 S13W50
(708",-199")
βγ/βγ Ehc/Ehc 0320/0400 14/23 -
13686 S08W42
(629",-115")
β/β Cao/Cao 0080/0100 06/11 -
13689 S08E03
(-49",-109")
β/β Cro/Cro 0010/0030 05/06 -
13690 N17E46
(-653",292")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0030 01/01 -
13680 N18W91
(900",292")
/ / / / - / C3.6(21:58)
13682 N19W83
(888",310")
/ / / / C2.0(08:55) / -
13687 N17W84
(900",279")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -
13688 S12W28
(436",-178")
/ / / / C3.7(21:01)
C2.4(18:13)
C2.6(14:20)
C5.6(10:43)
C9.7(09:06)
C9.4(08:56)
- / M1.1(07:51)
C3.2(05:17)

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.6(04:23) C2.3(08:10) C2.2(10:05) C1.8(11:00) C5.8(17:16) C3.7(21:01) C3.7(05:27) C3.4(13:49) M1.4(20:05) M1.5(06:28) M1.3(08:08) M1.4(20:05)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 25-May-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 25-May-2024 23:30 UT .