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6 June 2024
20240605 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240607

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13691
13697
13698
13699
13700
13701
13702
13703
13704

Cro/Cao
Bxo/Cro
Ekc/Fac
Dai/Dso
Cro/Cao
Dao/Dao
Dai/Dao
Hsx/Hsx
Dai/Dai
Hsx/Cro
Axx/Bxo
Bxo/Bxo
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
14 13 0
... 93 90
68 66 55
14 13 5
27 36 0
66 66 45
3 5 10
49 66 60
6 5 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 2 0
... 82 40
15 16 15
3 2 1
4 7 0
13 16 10
0 3 1
10 16 20
0 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
... 20 15
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 0 0
1 2 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13691 N24W91
(863",384")
β/β Cro/Cao 0030/0020 02/04 -
13695 N26W84
(844",414")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0020 02/03 -
13697 S18W47
(659",-293")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Fac 0250/0240 32/42 -
13698 N21W56
(733",338")
β/β Dai/Dso 0130/0090 08/15 -
13699 N03W89
(943",49")
β/β Cro/Cao 0020/0030 02/06 -
13700 S05W91
(941",-82")
β/β Dao/Dao 0110/0080 03/04 -
13701 S05W39
(594",-83")
β/β Dai/Dao 0060/0050 08/14 -
13702 N17E14
(-219",276")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0020 01/01 -
13703 S07W23
(367",-116")
β/β Dai/Dai 0150/0090 08/08 - / C3.9(11:27)
13704 S17E20
(-310",-278")
α/β Hsx/Cro 0030/0020 01/01 -
13705 N21W87
(881",338")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0005/0010 01/02 -
13706 S12E01
(-16",-198")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0020/0010 05/04 -
13696 N08W84
(931",131")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C9.5(00:01) C5.5(03:37) C6.4(04:49) C8.1(08:35) C8.1(08:54) C4.9(10:03) C4.6(13:53) C7.8(19:42) C5.8(20:17) C8.7(20:34) C7.3(21:19) M6.1(14:50) C4.7(11:54) C3.3(16:08) C3.1(16:45) C4.1(18:02) C6.8(18:59) C3.6(21:49) C3.6(22:36)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 6-Jun-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 6-Jun-2024 23:30 UT .