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7 June 2024
20240606 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240608

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13697
13698
13699
13701
13702
13703
13704
13707
13708

Dkc/Ekc
Dai/Dai
Bxo/Cro
Dao/Dai
Hsx/Hsx
Dac/Dai
Hsx/Hsx
Cso/---
Hsx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
80 80 90
49 66 55
8 6 0
35 36 35
3 5 10
61 47 60
3 5 10
... 17 25
... 5 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
30 49 40
10 16 15
1 1 0
4 7 10
0 3 1
12 24 20
0 3 1
... 3 1
... 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
6 9 10
0 2 1
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13697 S17W60
(784",-278")
βγδ/βγδ Dkc/Ekc 0280/0250 20/32 -
13698 N22W70
(824",353")
β/β Dai/Dai 0120/0130 11/08 -
13699 N03W91
(943",49")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0020 02/02 -
13701 S06W53
(752",-101")
β/β Dao/Dai 0050/0060 07/08 -
13702 N17E01
(-15",274")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0020 01/01 -
13703 S07W39
(592",-118")
βγ/β Dac/Dai 0110/0150 14/08 -
13704 S18E05
(-78",-296")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0030 01/01 -
13707 S15E43
(-624",-247")
β/- Cso/--- 0040/---- 02/-- -
13708 S22E60
(-760",-356")
α/- Hsx/--- 0100/---- 01/-- -
13695 N26W91
(848",414")
/β /Bxo /0010 /02 -
13696 N08W91
(935",131")
/ / / / -
13705 N21W91
(881",338")
/α /Axx /0005 /01 -
13706 S12W13
(208",-200")
/β /Bxo /0020 /05 C7.0(18:58)
C5.8(18:16)
M1.3(16:11)
C7.8(15:32)
C5.1(14:55)
C6.0(13:14)
C5.6(13:05)
C7.7(07:07)
C4.6(06:30) / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.8(01:23) C5.9(03:01) C6.8(03:39) C5.0(05:08) C9.0(08:38) C5.1(10:49) C7.1(12:04) C3.6(19:47) C2.8(20:50) C3.9(22:06) M4.1(08:52)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 7-Jun-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 7-Jun-2024 23:30 UT .