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18 June 2024
20240617 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240619

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13708
13709
13711
13712
13713
13716
13717

Hax/Hsx
Cao/Cao
Bxo/Hrx
Ekc/Ekc
Eso/Eso
Dkc/Dac
Bxo/Bxo
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
7 8 5
17 22 10
8 6 5
90 93 85
27 32 30
97 80 70
8 6 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
1 3 1
2 3 1
0 1 1
47 82 35
2 11 5
66 49 25
1 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
9 20 10
0 0 1
9 9 5
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13708 S21W78
(862",-343")
α/α Hax/Hsx 0040/0020 01/01 -
13709 S08W73
(894",-138")
β/β Cao/Cao 0030/0010 03/03 -
13711 S11W60
(804",-192")
β/α Bxo/Hrx 0010/0020 04/05 -
13712 S26W19
(277",-435")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 1100/1000 40/31 - / M1.6(07:54)
C2.7(07:04)
13713 S16W06
(95",-284")
βγ/βγ Eso/Eso 0150/0200 15/18 -
13716 N10W12
(194",141")
βγ/β Dkc/Dac 0480/0180 35/20 -
13717 N07W70
(881",107")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 03/04 -
13707 S14W91
(915",-227")
/ / / / - / C1.8(03:02)
13714 N14W53
(733",214")
/ / / / -
13715 N17W28
(425",256")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.0(03:02) C2.6(03:16) C4.1(09:54) C5.0(10:09) C5.1(10:35) C5.8(00:59) C1.9(02:02) C4.2(03:28) C2.7(03:58) C2.4(04:31) C2.7(07:04) C3.1(09:30) C1.8(18:00) C2.9(22:09) C6.0(22:51) C2.6(23:11) M1.6(07:54) M1.6(10:42) M1.4(19:57)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 18-Jun-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 18-Jun-2024 11:30 UT .