show styles

10 August 2024
20240809 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240811

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13772
13774
13775
13777
13780
13781
13782
13783
13784

Hsx/Cko
Eki/Ekc
Cao/Csi
Ekc/Ekc
Fkc/Fkc
Dso/Dsc
Eai/Eki
Dai/Dai
Cko/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 5 5
65 81 60
39 22 5
90 93 85
92 92 95
... 30 25
65 71 55
49 66 15
... 35 35
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
31 42 20
0 3 1
47 82 45
66 79 75
... 7 5
12 29 10
10 16 1
... 12 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 7 5
0 0 1
9 20 10
15 27 25
... 1 1
4 1 1
0 2 1
... 1 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13772 S25W86
(855",-404")
α/βγ Hsx/Cko 0230/0310 08/13 -
13774 S07W67
(865",-156")
βγ/βγδ Eki/Ekc 0260/0400 51/47 - / M4.6(21:10)
13775 N17W76
(879",250")
β/β Cao/Csi 0030/0070 04/10 -
13777 S09W47
(685",-219")
βγ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0460/0400 56/45 -
13780 S12W11
(177",-298")
βγ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 1280/1250 12/10 C6.1(09:50)
C8.9(07:19)
M1.6(04:03)
M5.3(02:14)
M1.3(00:52)
/ M1.1(23:43)
13781 N14W02
(32",125")
βγ/βγδ Dso/Dsc 0220/0160 14/05 -
13782 N03E28
(-445",-44")
βγ/βγ Eai/Eki 0220/0260 11/12 -
13783 N09W11
(179",44")
β/β Dai/Dai 0110/0080 15/11 -
13784 N15E47
(-670",173")
β/- Cko/--- 0450/---- 05/-- -
13776 N09W91
(934",148")
/ / / / -
13779 S13W63
(823",-258")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C8.2(08:49) C6.9(16:53) C9.8(19:48) C6.7(20:32) C9.7(20:43) C6.7(22:50) C6.2(23:05) M1.2(15:11) C7.5(14:36) C7.2(15:38) C7.1(17:43) M1.0(20:27) M2.9(21:50)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 10-Aug-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 10-Aug-2024 23:30 UT .