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11 September 2024
20240910 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240912

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13811
13813
13814
13815
13816
13819
13820
13822

Dsi/Dsi
Cao/Dsi
Dki/Eho
Hsx/Hsx
Dso/Cao
Axx/Bxi
Hax/Hsx
Dsi/Dso
Dai/Dao
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
50 58 40
15 22 15
0 73 65
3 5 10
21 30 20
... 3 1
7 8 5
66 66 50
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
7 12 10
0 3 1
0 30 25
0 3 1
2 7 1
... 1 1
1 3 1
13 16 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 4 10
0 0 1
0 1 1
... 0 1
0 0 1
1 2 5

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13811 S12W78
(912",-221")
β/βγ Dsi/Dsi 0240/0230 08/19 -
13813 S22W53
(707",-422")
β/β Cao/Dsi 0090/0130 03/12 -
13814 N16W16
(253",150")
βγδ/βγ Dki/Eho 0270/0250 15/12 -
13815 S26W41
(563",-497")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0130/0140 01/02 -
13816 S10W52
(741",-237")
β/β Dso/Cao 0100/0060 08/12 -
13819 S27W36
(500",-517")
α/β Axx/Bxi 0010/0020 01/17 -
13820 S18W52
(715",-363")
α/α Hax/Hsx 0010/0020 01/04 -
13821 N14W79
(908",206")
β/β Dsi/Dso 0060/0040 05/06 -
13822 N14W05
(80",113")
β/β Dai/Dao 0100/0060 15/12 -
13812 N14W91
(924",230")
/ / / / -
13817 S14W19
(302",-340")
/ / / / M1.4(15:09)
C5.6(06:28)
C6.3(01:26)
C6.4(00:57) / -
13818 S13W91
(928",-210")
/β /Bxo /0005 /02 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.1(00:30) C4.5(08:22) C4.5(09:30) C5.9(09:51) C3.5(10:28) C4.6(11:06) C7.4(13:15) C9.2(13:48) C6.7(19:42) M1.8(12:27) M1.9(15:24) M1.6(17:16) M2.0(17:44) C3.9(17:53) C4.3(20:48) M1.0(23:38)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 11-Sep-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 11-Sep-2024 23:30 UT .