show styles

13 December 2024
20241212 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20241214

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13917
13920
13921
13922
13924

Dkc/Dki
Eki/Eki
Axx/Axx
Cao/Cso
Cro/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
65 80 60
75 81 65
2 3 5
11 22 25
... 13 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
38 49 25
23 42 25
0 1 1
3 3 5
... 2 0
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
4 9 1
3 7 5
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 0

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13917 S08W54
(782",-128")
βγδ/βγ Dkc/Dki 0290/0280 16/23 -
13920 N22W14
(219",378")
βδ/βδ Eki/Eki 0250/0250 18/21 C1.6(07:53) / -
13921 S06W40
(625",-91")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13922 S18E24
(-378",-290")
β/β Cao/Cso 0030/0050 03/05 -
13924 S20W00
(0",-322")
β/- Cro/--- 0030/---- 03/-- -
13915 N12W84
(948",203")
/ / / / -
13916 S15W66
(861",-247")
/β /Bxo /0010 /03 -
13919 S14W60
(820",-229")
/ / / / -
13923 N24W66
(814",401")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.2(02:34) C9.2(03:32) C1.3(06:35) C1.3(07:04) C1.4(07:11) C1.6(08:43) C1.8(09:05) C2.0(09:50) C1.4(12:21) C1.4(12:31) C4.2(12:58) C5.1(16:30) C4.1(16:57) C2.0(19:26) M1.0(03:11) M2.0(11:13) M1.0(14:15) M1.0(17:14)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 13-Dec-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 13-Dec-2024 20:30 UT .