show styles

 1 April 2001
⇐20010331 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010402⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09389 S11W89
(934",-182") 		β/βγδ Cao/Bxo 0050/0050 06/08 -
09390 N14W91
(924",230") 		α/αγδ Hax/Hsx 0040/0050 01/01 -
09393 N17W57
(765",214") 		βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 2000/2240 62/63 -
09395 S12W46
(672",-278") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0030/0050 02/02 -
09397 S09W36
(554",-244") 		βγδ/βγδ Eao/Eao 0120/0180 17/23 -
09401 N20W39
(565",236") 		βγδ/βγδ Eai/Eki 0190/0230 32/37 -
09402 N20W71
(847",286") 		βγδ/βγδ Cro/Cro 0020/0020 03/03 -
09403 S15W20
(315",-354") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 05/02 -
09404 S06W05
(82",-218") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Cao 0090/0080 14/07 -
09406 N25E14
(-209",294") 		αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hax 0150/0170 02/01 -
09407 N11E12
(-195",65") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0100/0100 03/05 -
09408 S10W19
(306",-277") 		βγδ/βγδ Fki/Eki 0250/0200 25/28 -
09410 S36E13
(-173",-652") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0000/0010 01/02 -
09411 N08E21
(-339",20") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0000/0020 01/02 -
09412 S14E51
(-720",-302") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Bxo 0050/0030 02/02 -
09413 N09W31
(486",46") 		βγδ/- Cao/--- 0020/---- 04/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 01-Apr-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 02-Apr-2001 00:30 .