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 13 June 2001
⇐20010612 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010614⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09487 N22W69
(825",314") 		βγ/βγ Cao/Cao 0120/0110 03/08 -
09488 S18W70
(852",-331") 		βγ/βγ Cso/Csi 0040/0140 02/15 -
09489 N20W56
(743",260") 		βγ/βγ Cso/Eki 0100/0260 09/21 -
09491 N26W28
(403",320") 		βγ/αγ Cso/Hsx 0100/0110 03/01 -
09492 N21W29
(432",241") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0100/0140 05/11 -
09493 N07W14
(229",-0") 		βγ/βγ Fso/Fao 0090/0110 03/06 -
09494 S07W91
(945",-113") 		βγ/βγ Eao/Dki 0320/0430 05/11 -
09495 N05W44
(661",-3") 		βγ/βγ Bxo/Dso 0010/0060 03/09 -
09497 S09W12
(196",-264") 		βγ/βγ Cro/Cao 0020/0030 05/09 -
09498 N23E17
(-257",264") 		βγ/βγ Cso/Cai 0030/0070 02/07 -
09499 N18W11
(173",180") 		βγ/βγ Dso/Cao 0040/0050 06/06 -
09500 N10E43
(-641",77") 		αγ/βγ Hax/Dao 0070/0090 03/03 -
09501 S15E41
(-605",-333") 		βγ/αγ Cso/Hsx 0060/0050 01/01 -
09502 S25E54
(-699",-464") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0140/0140 03/03 -
09503 N13E54
(-752",144") 		βγ/- Cso/--- 0160/---- 04/-- -
09504 N06E62
(-838",42") 		αγ/- Hsx/--- 0140/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 13-Jun-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 13-Jun-2001 23:30 .