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 14 June 2001
⇐20010613 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010615⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09487 N22W82
(875",338") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Cao 0120/0120 04/03 -
09488 S18W84
(901",-303") 		αγ/βγ Hsx/Cso 0060/0040 01/02 -
09489 N20W69
(836",283") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Cso 0090/0100 04/09 -
09491 N27W41
(558",349") 		βγ/βγ Cso/Cso 0100/0100 04/03 -
09492 N21W42
(596",256") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0080/0100 05/05 -
09493 N07W29
(460",10") 		βγ/βγ Fao/Fso 0100/0090 03/03 -
09494 S07W91
(945",-113") 		αγ/βγ Hsx/Eao 0120/0320 02/05 -
09495 N05W48
(707",2") 		βγ/βγ Cro/Bxo 0030/0010 08/03 -
09497 S10W26
(412",-271") 		βγ/βγ Cro/Cro 0020/0020 04/05 -
09498 N23E04
(-61",260") 		βγ/βγ Dso/Cso 0060/0030 04/02 -
09499 N19W26
(396",206") 		βγ/βγ Dso/Dso 0060/0040 04/06 -
09500 N09E29
(-457",44") 		βγ/αγ Cao/Hax 0060/0070 06/03 -
09501 S15E28
(-433",-348") 		βγ/βγ Cao/Cso 0090/0060 02/01 -
09502 S26E44
(-596",-493") 		βγ/βγ Dso/Dao 0150/0140 05/03 -
09503 N13E54
(-752",144") 		βγ/βγ Cso/Cso 0160/0160 04/04 -
09504 N06E62
(-838",42") 		αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0140/0140 01/01 -
09505 N22E59
(-758",297") 		βγ/- Bxo/--- 0060/---- 03/-- -
09506 N17E65
(-827",228") 		αγ/- Hsx/--- 0050/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 14-Jun-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 14-Jun-2001 23:30 .