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 16 June 2001
⇐20010615 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010617⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09489 N20W91
(894",325") 		βγ/βγ Dso/Eao 0130/0160 04/09 -
09491 N24W67
(802",342") 		αγ/βγ Hsx/Cso 0070/0090 02/03 -
09492 N21W66
(813",293") 		βγ/βγ Cso/Dso 0040/0060 03/04 -
09493 N06W55
(777",30") 		βγ/βγ Eso/Fso 0080/0080 03/03 -
09495 N05W73
(908",47") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0140/0130 12/13 -
09497 S10W49
(709",-242") 		αγ/βγ Axx/Dso 0020/0030 01/05 -
09498 N24W22
(327",283") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dso 0070/0060 09/10 -
09499 N19W55
(739",243") 		αγ/βγ Hsx/Cso 0060/0060 01/04 -
09500 N09E04
(-65",29") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0080/0080 07/07 -
09501 S13E01
(-16",-330") 		βγ/βγ Dso/Cso 0080/0070 05/04 -
09502 S25E18
(-267",-504") 		βγ/βγ Dso/Dao 0160/0160 14/12 -
09503 N15E32
(-489",146") 		βγ/βγ Eai/Eao 0290/0250 24/14 -
09504 N07E37
(-571",19") 		βγ/βγ Cko/Cko 0290/0320 05/07 -
09505 N23E45
(-621",291") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Bxo 0120/0060 03/03 -
09506 N17E53
(-729",207") 		βγ/αγ Cao/Hsx 0180/0050 06/01 -
09507 N13E12
(-193",98") 		βγ/βγ Cso/Cso 0040/0040 05/05 -
09508 S20W74
(861",-354") 		αγ/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 16-Jun-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 16-Jun-2001 23:30 .