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 24 September 2001
⇐20010923 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010925⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09616 S12W91
(931",-194") 		βγ/βγ Fso/Fso 0130/0160 05/09 -
09620 N12W37
(562",102") 		βγ/βγ Cao/Dao 0100/0110 05/06 -
09621 N14W32
(491",130") 		βγ/βγ Cko/Cao 0220/0180 09/09 -
09622 N13W59
(797",152") 		βγ/βγ Dki/Dki 0330/0300 23/27 -
09624 N02W27
(433",-74") 		αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0110/0100 01/01 -
09627 N01W11
(182",-101") 		βγ/βγ Dso/Cso 0050/0050 06/05 -
09628 S18W02
(31",-407") 		βγδ/βγ Fac/Fac 0720/0630 58/58 -
09629 N25W29
(420",305") 		βγδ/βγ Dao/Dso 0040/0040 08/10 -
09631 N07W71
(895",76") 		βγδ/βγ Bxo/Dao 0010/0050 05/09 -
09632 S18E18
(-281",-402") 		βγδ/βγ Dki/Dko 0780/0710 17/20 -
09633 N23E48
(-653",296") 		αγδ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0090/0090 01/01 -
09634 N12E54
(-755",127") 		βγδ/βγ Fao/Dao 0230/0090 04/04 -
09635 N22W01
(15",243") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 03/03 -
09636 N12E51
(-726",122") 		βγδ/- Eao/--- 0260/---- 07/-- -
09637 S14E57
(-776",-292") 		βγδ/- Dao/--- 0140/---- 03/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 24-Sep-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 24-Sep-2001 23:30 .