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29 September 2001
20010928 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20010930

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
09620 N12W91
αγδ/αγδ Hrx/Hsx 0030/0040 01/01 -
09621 N15W91
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hax 0120/0110 01/01 -
09624 N03W91
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0060/0090 01/01 -
09628 S18W62
βγδ/βγδ Fki/Ekc 0620/0780 27/37 -
09632 S18W47
βγδ/βγδ Eki/Dkc 0640/0710 15/17 -
09633 N22W16
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0070/0070 01/01 -
09634 N12W16
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0080/0110 09/08 -
09635 N21W65
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dso 0040/0060 07/10 -
09636 N14W01
βγδ/βγδ Fai/Fai 0210/0370 24/28 -
09637 S15E04
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0220/0200 09/10 -
09639 N03W06
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dso 0050/0030 06/07 -
09640 N10E42
βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Cso 0020/0040 02/04 -
09641 S14E47
αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hsx 0070/0060 01/01 -
09642 N03E57
αγδ/- Hsx/--- 0030/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Sep-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 29-Sep-2001 23:30 .