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 2 October 2001
⇐20011001 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011003⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09628 S22W91
(882",-351") 		βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Eki 0350/0800 15/20 -
09632 S21W87
(887",-344") 		βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Dki 0620/0620 20/19 -
09633 N22W57
(742",294") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0070/0080 01/01 -
09634 N11W52
(738",107") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Dao 0070/0070 10/07 -
09635 N20W91
(894",325") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0090/0140 04/03 -
09636 N13W41
(610",124") 		βγδ/βγδ Eac/Fkc 0310/0350 34/35 -
09637 S20W33
(489",-419") 		βγδ/βγδ Eso/Dao 0120/0190 15/19 -
09639 N04W51
(740",-9") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0060/0100 04/08 -
09640 N11W02
(32",62") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cso 0040/0020 03/02 -
09641 S13E09
(-145",-329") 		βγδ/βγδ Eao/Cso 0220/0150 09/05 -
09642 N06E29
(-461",-5") 		αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hsx 0060/0020 02/01 -
09643 S26W40
(551",-498") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0030/0030 03/03 -
09644 N20W18
(277",216") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0030/0030 04/04 -
09645 S18W11
(173",-405") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0060/0060 12/12 -
09646 N12E28
(-439",93") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cao 0030/0030 03/03 -
09647 S16E17
(-268",-372") 		αγδ/- Axx/--- 0000/---- 01/-- -
09648 S04E64
(-855",-118") 		αγδ/- Hsx/--- 0050/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 02-Oct-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 02-Oct-2001 23:30 .