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24 April 2002
20020423 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20020425

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
09909 N08W64
αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0040/0050 01/01 -
09910 S19W76
αγ/βγ Hsx/Cso 0080/0080 01/06 -
09912 N11W52
βγ/βγ Dai/Dai 0240/0320 16/15 -
09913 S15W45
βγ/αγ Cso/Hrx 0030/0020 06/01 -
09914 N04E04
βγ/βγ Dao/Dso 0140/0150 15/09 -
09915 N11E14
βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0180/0120 13/09 -
09916 S18E33
βγ/βγ Dao/Dso 0150/0150 09/08 -
09919 N10E52
βγ/αγ Dso/Hsx 0160/0060 02/01 -
09920 S23W17
βγ/βγ Cso/Cso 0030/0030 04/04 -
09921 N12E27
αγ/αγ Axx/Axx 0000/0000 01/01 -
09922 N19E42
αγ/αγ Axx/Axx 0010/0010 02/02 -
09923 S03W45
βγ/- Cro/--- 0020/---- 08/-- -
09924 S17W21
βγ/- Dao/--- 0060/---- 18/-- -
09925 S14W35
βγ/- Dso/--- 0040/---- 05/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 24-Apr-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 24-Apr-2002 23:30 .