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23 May 2002
20020522 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20020524

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
09948 S21W91
αγδ/αγδ Hhx/Hhx 0300/0340 01/02 -
09954 S22W40
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dso 0060/0090 08/08 -
09955 S13W38
βγδ/αγδ Cro/Hrx 0010/0010 02/01 -
09957 N10W18
βγδ/βγδ Eai/Ekc 0520/0760 47/59 -
09958 N04W31
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0070/0080 01/01 -
09960 N14E05
--/-- Dac/Dac 0120/0140 06/05 -
09961 S22E20
βγδ/βγδ Eai/Eai 0330/0330 21/16 -
09962 N15E20
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0030/0020 01/01 -
09963 N16E34
βγδ/αγδ Dho/Hax 0340/0210 12/02 -
09964 S15W06
βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 04/04 -
09965 S10E48
βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cao 0080/0080 04/04 -
09966 N10E20
βγδ/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 04/-- -
09967 N13E32
αγδ/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 23-May-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 23-May-2002 23:30 .