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27 July 2002
20020726 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20020728

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
10036 S07W82
βγδ/βγδ Cko/Ekc 0500/0590 17/41 -
10037 N15W72
βγδ/αγδ Cao/Hsx 0170/0170 04/01 -
10038 N16W28
αγδ/βγδ Axx/Cso 0020/0040 06/08 -
10039 S16E08
βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 0940/0850 72/52 -
10042 S19W27
βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cao 0030/0030 03/04 -
10043 N12W00
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0160/0140 20/17 -
10044 S21E03
βγδ/βγδ Eki/Eai 0430/0180 42/22 -
10045 N05W24
βγδ/βγδ Dai/Cao 0170/0030 20/08 -
10047 N07W76
βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Cso 0030/0020 04/02 -
10048 N18E38
βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cao 0030/0030 05/05 -
10049 S06W44
βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0220/0220 02/02 -
10050 S07E22
βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 04/04 -
10051 S17E52
βγδ/- Cao/--- 0090/---- 02/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 27-Jul-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 27-Jul-2002 23:30 .