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 23 September 2002
⇐20020922 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20020924⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
10115 S04W85
(943",-75") 		α/β Hax/Cao 0150/0160 02/03 -
10117 S09W35
(539",-243") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0160/0170 03/02 -
10119 S14W63
(822",-280") 		βδ/βδ Eki/Dkc 0650/0670 33/31 -
10121 S12W29
(451",-297") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0040/0050 02/01 -
10122 S18W19
(295",-398") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0040/0060 02/01 -
10123 S13W52
(730",-283") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0040/0060 05/14 -
10125 S09W00
(0",-264") 		α/β Hsx/Cao 0020/0020 04/03 -
10126 S23E25
(-370",-468") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0080/0100 05/05 -
10127 S13W23
(362",-318") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0190/0130 17/19 -
10129 N25E40
(-555",317") 		α/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 01/-- -
10130 N06E38
(-583",6") 		α/- Axx/--- 0020/---- 03/-- -
10131 S07E21
(-339",-224") 		β/- Cao/--- 0030/---- 02/-- -
10132 N18W15
(234",183") 		β/- Cao/--- 0070/---- 09/-- -
10116 N15W91
(917",245") 		/β /Cso /0040 /03 -
10118 N13W80
(911",192") 		/ / / / -
10120 S19W37
(542",-396") 		/β /Bxo /0010 /03 -
10128 N10E22
(-351",56") 		/α /Axx /0010 /01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 23-Sep-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 23-Sep-2002 23:30 .