show styles

 30 October 2002
⇐20021029 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20021031⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
10162 N26W87
(852",407") 		βγ/βγδ Fki/Fkc 0600/0840 23/39 C3.4(21:18)
C2.8(19:19)
C5.4(17:27)
C5.2(17:14)
C5.5(16:27)
C1.6(09:40)
C3.9(04:56)
C6.0(04:02)
C3.6(02:53)
C3.7(00:57)
C5.4(23:00)
C1.8(21:47)
C2.5(19:59)
C1.9(19:11)
C9.7(16:20)
C2.2(14:19)
C2.2(13:42)
C1.4(12:30)
/ M1.1(03:01)
10165 N20W61
(782",269") 		β/α Cao/Hax 0100/0130 03/02 -
10167 N17W17
(266",168") 		β/α Cso/Hsx 0060/0040 07/02 C1.9(03:34) / -
10169 S20W07
(109",-433") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0060/0050 09/09 -
10170 S12W04
(65",-312") 		α/β Axx/Cao 0010/0030 01/03 - / C1.1(01:33)
10171 N11E11
(-178",66") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0070/0070 02/03 -
10172 S16E16
(-252",-370") 		α/α Axx/Hsx 0010/0020 01/02 -
10173 S18W91
(902",-289") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0100/0050 04/03 C5.3(21:54)
/ C1.6(14:45)
C2.9(05:49)
10174 S25E41
(-566",-480") 		β/- Cao/--- 0070/---- 02/-- -
10175 N15E43
(-627",161") 		β/- Cso/--- 0050/---- 05/-- -
10176 N12E61
(-814",140") 		α/- Hsx/--- 0090/---- 01/-- C3.0(22:20)
C2.2(06:40) / -
10164 N11W78
(912",155") 		/ / / / -
10166 S06W84
(939",-110") 		/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.9(06:30) C2.1(20:14) C4.6(04:18) C8.7(15:19) C3.3(23:23)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 30-Oct-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 30-Oct-2002 23:30 .