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 27 October 2004
⇐20041026 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20041028⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
10684 S05W68
(878",-126") 		α/β Hax/Dao 0090/0100 01/10 -
10687 N12W25
(394",91") 		βγ/βγ Eai/Eai 0330/0370 46/48 C1.1(05:54)
/ C1.3(22:39)
C2.2(15:00)
C1.6(04:53)
10689 N12W04
(65",81") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0050/0060 01/03 -
10690 N00E12
(-198",-115") 		α/α Hsx/Hax 0130/0070 03/02 -
10691 N15E18
(-284",136") 		βγδ/βγδ Eao/Eai 0110/0150 09/17 C1.7(20:57)
/ C1.3(18:33)
10692 S18W11
(173",-402") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0090/0110 04/06 -
10685 S07W91
(942",-112") 		/ / / / - / C1.0(22:18)

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.3(23:15) C1.2(16:00)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 27-Oct-2004 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 27-Oct-2004 23:30 .